The study, conducted by British scientists from the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and published in the journal Nature Climate Change, raises serious questions about the future of the global climate. They forecast global temperatures could exceed 1.5°C by 2030, which is considered a “safe” threshold for preventing the most catastrophic climate change under the Paris climate agreement.
This 1.5°C limit was chosen because it should reduce the risk of extreme weather conditions, large loss of species diversity and global food insecurity. Revising the temperature threshold to 2°C could mean significantly greater risks and negative consequences for the world’s ecosystems and human communities.
The “carbon budget” estimates the amount of CO2 emissions that can still be released into the atmosphere before a certain level of global warming is reached. But carbon budget estimates can vary and depend on many variables, including economic dynamics, political decisions, scientific innovations in emissions reduction and the effectiveness of carbon capture measures.
Uncertainty in these calculations also stems from the influence of methane and other greenhouse gases, which can enhance or mitigate the effects of carbon dioxide. Compensatory processes such as increased vegetation growth and natural carbon sequestration processes also play a role, but their potential and limits are still not clearly defined.
To cope with the threat of climate change, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the global level, as well as the adoption of sustainable technologies and adaptation methods to mitigate the negative effects of climate change.